SPC Convective Outlooks

SPC Jan 25, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Sa, 25 Jan 2020)
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Outlook Image Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... The development of a couple of strong thunderstorms is possible across parts of the Carolina piedmont and coastal plain tonight, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...01Z Outlook Update... Forcing for ascent near/just ahead of an eastward advancing cold front appears to be contributing to an evolving line of convection with at least some embedded thunderstorm activity (roughly east of a Greensboro NC/Columbia SC line at 0030Z). The extent to which this is supported by weak (generally on the order of a few hundred J/kg or less) boundary-layer instability remains unclear, but low-level and deep-layer shear conditionally appear at least marginally conducive to organized convective development which could promote a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that some further strengthening of southerly pre-frontal 850 mb flow, to 30-40+ kt, is possible tonight across Carolina coastal areas and the adjacent offshore waters. This could be accompanied by at least some further inland boundary-layer moistening and destabilization, and potential for intensifying convection, particularly across the northeastern South Carolina coastal plain into adjacent portions of southern North Carolina between 03-06Z. ..Kerr.. 01/25/2020 Read more
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